| History
favors market rebound
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October 8, 2001: 7:27 a.m. ET
U.S. stock markets post some
sharp drops after attacks, but rebound with time.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street always pounds stocks in the
immediate aftermath of military action, but things start looking
up as investor panic fades after a few months.
A check of six events in U.S. history since 1898 shows that the
Dow Jones industrial average, the oldest U.S. market benchmark,
falls in the days immediately after momentous events like the
bombing of Pearl Harbor, but typically rebounds within six
months. Wall Street posted its worst week since the Depression
after markets reopened in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks that
leveled the World Trade Center and killed more than 5,000
people.
The Dow fell 14.3 percent in the week ended Sept. 21. Since
then, the blue chip market gauge recovered some ground, as panic
selling receded, various U.S. stimulus packages partly restored
investor confidence and Wall Street pinned its hopes on an
economic rebound next year.
The Dow has risen 10.73 percent since its closing low Sept. 21,
but still is off 5.06 percent since the attacks. Stocks tend to
get hammered first after war-related events, but later rally, a
study by research firm MarketHistory.com shows.
The events MarketHistory.com researched included: the sinking of
the U.S. battleship Maine Feb. 15, 1898; the sinking of the
passenger ship the Lusitania May 7, 1915; the attack on the
Pearl Harbor naval base Dec. 7, 1941; the invasion of Kuwait by
Iraq Aug. 2, 1990; the bombing of the World Trade Center in New
York Feb. 26, 1993; and the bombing of federal offices in
Oklahoma April 19, 1995.
A day after the event, the Dow Jones industrial average was down
an average of 1.9 percent, MarketHistory.com said. One week
later, the Dow average dropped by 3 percent. But then the
average typically began to turn around. Two weeks after an
attack or bombing, the index was down an average 2.1 percent,
and within a month it was down just 1.6 percent. After six
months, the Dow industrials were up an average 11.3 percent, and
a year from the watershed event the benchmark gained 18.4
percent.
"In the near term, events like this cause near-term fear,
panic, and economic disruption but that is when market bottoms
are formed," Tim Ghriskey, head of Ghriskey Capital
Partners, a money management firm for wealthy individuals, told
Reuters Sept. 12. "And usually a year later we have
stronger and much higher financial markets as economic stability
and investors return."
At the two-year mark, the Dow industrials were up an average
30.7 percent; at three years up by 50.4 percent; and after five
years up by 82.2 percent. 
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