Bear talk rumbles as slump lengthens
Fri Dec 6,10:32 AM ET

Adam Shell USA TODAY

NEW YORK -- After posting gains for eight consecutive weeks, blue-chip stocks are now riding a five-session losing streak, prompting some investors to question whether the big rally that began in early October has run its course.

After sprinting 22.6% off of its Oct. 9 low, the Dow Jones industrial average has declined 308 points, or 3.5%, during the skid that began Nov. 29.

Optimistic traders and money managers say the pullback is both healthy and expected given the sharp gains enjoyed by blue chips and tech stocks since Wall Street slumped to fresh lows in early October. But others note that the recent five-day funk is reminiscent of other failed rallies and suggest that further declines can't be ruled out.

''It lends support to the hypothesis that this has been another bear market rally, that the bear market is still in place, that we will likely retest the lows and, perhaps, extend them to the downside,'' says Gibbons Burke, editor at MarketHistory.com.

Every other big rally since stocks peaked in March 2000 has fizzled, leading to new lows.

Thursday, the Dow fell 114.57 points, or 1.3%, to 8623.28. The blue-chip index has faltered recently. The last time the Dow fell five sessions in a row was back in July.

Tepid retail sales in November from key retailers like Wal-Mart and rising odds that United Airlines will seek bankruptcy protection (stories, 1,3B) after the government refused to OK a loan guarantee put investors in a selling mood Thursday.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite, which has been the biggest winner in the strong rally off the October lows, also gave up ground, falling 19.60 points, or 1.4%, to 1410.75. The Standard & Poor's 500 declined 11.02 points, or 1.2%, to 906.55. USA TODAY's Internet 50 declined 1.55 points, or 2.1%, to 72.22.

Not everyone on Wall Street believes this rally will fail. Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo, notes that future corporate profits are being revised upward and that investors are more confident and willing to take more risks. ''Downside risk for stocks is limited,'' he says.

Gary Kaltbaum, strategist at Investor's Edge Partners, is concerned that the big winners in the recent rally have been lower-priced stocks with questionable fundamentals. ''The type of excessive froth and speculation we are seeing is what you typically get at market tops, not the beginning of a new bull market,'' he says.