Step-by-Step Solution

Defining the Series

  1. Open the Search Database window and from the Tree View tab, select Futures>NYMEX. Open NG and double-click Close to add this selection to the Worksheet. Select the Configuration button to return to the Configuration window.

Selecting Seasonal Analysis

  1. The Seasonal Analysis setting changes the data presentation from a continuous sequential time line to a year-to-year format. To activate the Seasonal Analysis setting, check Seasonal Analysis at the bottom of the Data Builder.

    When you check Seasonal Analysis, the Seasonal Analysis Configuration window automatically opens. Once closed, you can select the Configure Seasonal Analysis button to re-open it.

Adding the Dates

  1. In the Seasonal Analysis Configuration window, under the Seasons tab, change the Start First Season date to 11/01/2000 and the End Last Season date to 03/31/2003.

  2. You can also add more dates using another method. Uncheck Lock included seasons with date range, then change the End Last Season date to 03/31/2006. Press Enter if you typed in the dates or select OK if you used the Calendar button to select the date.

    By default, Lock included seasons with date range is checked. When this setting is checked, any changes to the start and end season entries will automatically go into the periods included in analysis table.

    Now, select Add. Select the years 2003-2004, 2004-2005 and 2005-2006. You can make multiple year selections by using the Shift or Ctrl keys. Select OK.

    To select all the years listed, you can check Select All.

  3. Next, select the Averages tab. You want to create an average of the year ranges from 2000-2004. Check Custom Averages and select Add. Using the Shift or Ctrl keys, you can make multiple year selections. Use the Shift key to select 2000-2004.

    In the Label field, enter Average 2000-2004. Select OK.

  4. Now, averages are set to display for all years and for the created customized average. To display only the customized average, turn off the average for all years by unchecking Show in Chart and Show in Table in the Averages of all Seasons Years pane.

  5. Select Chart at the bottom of the Season Analysis Configuration window. Display the legend by selecting View>Chart Options>Legend. Change the position of the legend by selecting View>Chart Options>East from the menu bar. Display the chart using symbols by selecting View>Chart Options>Symbols.

    The following chart displays:

  6. The results for the year 2000-2001 closely match the 2005-2006 results. You can now make a new chart showing 2000-2001, the custom average of all the years and 2005-2006. To do this, select the Configuration button. Then, from the Configuration window, select the Configure Seasonal Analysis button next to Seasonal Analysis to open to the Seasonal Analysis Configuration window.

  7. Under the Seasons tab, uncheck Show in Chart for all years except “2000-2001” and “2005-2006”.

  8. Select Chart at the bottom of the Seasonal Analysis Configuration window to display the seasonal analysis chart containing the customized average, the year range 2000-2001 and 2005-2006 for the heavy demand months of March-Nov for the front continuous Natural Gas futures contract:

  9. Select the Configuration button to return to the Configuration window, and select the New button to begin the "Problem Solvers" section.